GT raise IPL 2026 playoff qualification chances to 72.52%, but Rajasthan Royals remain ahead at 80.31%

Gujarat Titans surged to second place with a dominant 77-run victory over Rajasthan Royals, significantly boosting their playoff chances to 72.52%. Shubman Gill and Sai Sudharsan starred with the bat, while Rashid Khan impressed with the ball. Despite the loss, Rajasthan Royals maintain a higher overall playoff probability due to their easier remaining schedule.

Gujarat Titans strengthened their IPL 2026 playoff position following a commanding 77-run win over Rajasthan Royals in Jaipur, with projections showing GT’s qualification probability rising after the massive Net Run Rate boost generated by the victory. The latest win now places Gujarat Titans at a 72.52% chance of reaching the playoffs and a 38.71% probability of finishing inside the top two after their biggest-ever IPL win by runs. Shubman Gill’s 84, Sai Sudharsan’s 55 and Rashid Khan’s superb 4/33 powered GT to a dominant victory that lifted them to second place in the standings and pushed their Net Run Rate from -0.147 to +0.228. Rajasthan Royals, meanwhile, remain projected slightly ahead of Gujarat overall despite the defeat, with an 80.31% playoff probability and a 44.07% top-two probability.

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That contradiction is largely driven by the remaining schedule. While GT still face Sunrisers Hyderabad, Kolkata Knight Riders and Chennai Super Kings in their final three league matches, Rajasthan’s remaining fixtures come against Delhi Capitals, Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians - all teams currently outside the top seven and carrying significantly weaker playoff projections.

IPL 2026 Playoff Probabilities

TeamPlayoff ProbabilityTop-Two ProbabilityAverage FinishSRH89.59%60.22%2.64PBKS84.81%53.25%2.65RR80.31%44.07%3.54RCB77.55%41.98%3.08GT72.52%38.71%4.25CSK38.81%12.62%5.45KKR5.23%0.06%7.11MI1.50%0.01%8.46LSG1.56%0.00%8.72DC0.00%0.00%9.08

The result also produced smaller shifts across the wider playoff race. Punjab Kings strengthened marginally to 84.81%, while Sunrisers Hyderabad remained the strongest playoff favourites at 89.59%. Royal Challengers Bengaluru held steady at 77.55%, with their massive +1.234 Net Run Rate continuing to provide one of the strongest safety cushions in the league despite recent inconsistency. Chennai Super Kings suffered a slight projection drop after GT’s win because one direct rival effectively moved further ahead in the standings, leaving CSK at 38.81%. Kolkata Knight Riders remain distant outsiders at just 5.23%, while Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants continue to hover around the 1.5% mark, realistically requiring near-perfect finishes combined with multiple collapses elsewhere. Delhi Capitals, meanwhile, failed to qualify in any of the latest 100,000 projected simulations despite still remaining mathematically alive on paper.

Remaining IPL 2026 Fixtures: Predicted Winners

MatchFixtureProjected FavouriteMatch 53CSK vs LSGCSKMatch 54RCB vs MIRCBMatch 55PBKS vs DCPBKSMatch 56GT vs SRHGT (very close)Match 57RCB vs KKRRCBMatch 58PBKS vs MIPBKSMatch 59LSG vs CSKCSK (very close)Match 60KKR vs GTGTMatch 61PBKS vs RCBPBKS (very close)Match 62DC vs RRRRMatch 63CSK vs SRHSRHMatch 64RR vs LSGRRMatch 65KKR vs MIKKRMatch 66GT vs CSKGTMatch 67SRH vs RCBSRHMatch 68LSG vs PBKSPBKSMatch 69MI vs RRRR

The projections were generated using a simulation model that replayed the remaining IPL 2026 league stage 100,000 times using current points, Net Run Rate, recent form, remaining fixtures and weighted match-win probabilities.

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