Cape Verde are smallest nation to reach World Cup knockouts, is Messi’s path to final opening up?

Cape Verde have made history as the smallest nation ever to reach the knockout stage of a men’s World Cup and will face Lionel Messi’s Argentina in the next chapter of their Cinderella story.

They were already one of the smallest nations ever to play at the competition but the collection of 10 islands off the west coast of Africa, which has a population of around 525,000 and was a Portuguese colony until 1975, has now made it to the round of 32. Cape Verde finished second in Group H by drawing 0-0 with Saudi Arabia and will face Argentina in Miami on July 3.

Laros Duarte and Garry Rodrigues had good chances to win the game for Cape Verde but a draw was enough to make it through.

Here, The Athletic’s Nick Miller and Dan Sheldon break down the key talking points.

How great is Cape Verde’s achievement?

It’s something that bears repeating, considering how extraordinary it is, so we say again: Cape Verde are through to the knockout rounds of the World Cup.

It’s extraordinary enough that they qualified: this tiny country, this collection of small islands, not all of them inhabited. They’re the third-smallest nation ever to qualify for the World Cup in terms of population size, and now comfortably the smallest to make it through to the knockout rounds.

And Cape Verde are not necessarily just beneficiaries of the expanded format. They won their African qualification group, finishing ahead of relative World Cup stalwarts Cameroon, and avoided any playoffs. They then finished second in their World Cup group, avoiding the jeopardy of advancing as one of the eight best third-placed teams. You could argue that they benefitted from the African confederation having six automatic qualification spots (plus three through the African playoffs and one other through the intercontinental playoffs), but they are here by merit.

It’s Argentina next for them. It’s likely that will be it. But then, there’s nothing much likely about what this team have achieved so far.

Nick Miller

Has Messi’s path to the final opened up?

Cape Verde’s remarkable effort to finish second in their group has been rewarded with a return to Miami and a game against Lionel Messi’s Argentina on July 3.

It is a great story for the smallest nation to ever advance to the knockout stage of the tournament, but if you are of an Argentinian persuasion, then the draw has now opened up — there is a clear path for them to make the final and defend their World Cup title.

Should Argentina beat Cape Verde, which is something they should be doing without any issues, then they would likely face either Australia or Belgium in the round of 16. That would be another fixture they would be favourites to win.

The quarter-final, however, is where it could get exciting, with Argentina on a potential collision course with Portugal.

This would be the first time in their long, illustrious careers that Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo would have faced each other at the World Cup and, given their respective ages (Messi is 39; Ronaldo is 41), it may prove to be the final time they are on a pitch together.

Although Brazil or England could await Argentina in the semi-final, you can see how the draw has possibly opened up for the defending champions.

Dan Sheldon

What next for the teams in Group H?

As winners of the group, Spain will play their round-of-32 game in Los Angeles on July 2 against the runner-up in Group J, which at present is Austria, who are tied on three points with Algeria and can cement that place by winning or drawing when the two teams play on Saturday.

Cape Verde will face Lionel Messi’s Argentina after finishing as Group H runners-up. That game will take place in Miami on July 3.

Uruguay finished third but have only two points, so cannot qualify as one of the best-placed third-placed teams and are eliminated.

Saudi Arabia, hosts of the 2034 World Cup, ended their campaign bottom, also with two points but a worse goal difference than Uruguay.

How bad was this game?

This World Cup has thrown up some thrilling encounters, a few great moments for the underdogs and stellar performances by the biggest names in the game: you’ll remember a lot of them for some years to come.

However, Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia was not one of them.

The context meant it wasn’t devoid of interest and therefore not entirely forgettable, and Cape Verde showed some threatening moments in the first half. But the lack of quality was evident throughout: Saudi Arabia offered very little in the opposition half, and while Cape Verde showed some purpose going forwards it all fell apart once they approached the penalty area.

This is perhaps what the nay-sayers who thought the expansion of the tournament would dilute its quality were worried about: not necessarily one-sided thrashings, because they have their own slightly grim appeal and, well, everyone likes goals. But games like this, where for all the feel-good nature of stories like Cape Verde’s, you have two limited teams playing limited football.

The inclusion of these smaller nations still feels worthwhile for the joyous moments that they have brought, but we also have to be aware that there is a trade-off. And this is it.

Nick Miller

Did Vozinha live up to his legend?

If you’re keeping track of this stuff, Vozinha’s Instagram following has now grown to 16.8 million.

One of the tournament’s more unlikely stars was once again one of the big draws at this game: in the stands more than one group of fans brought with them a set of large placards made entirely of his face; a young boy held up a sign with ‘In Vozinha we trust’ on one side, and the ubiquitous request ‘Can I have your shirt?’ on the other; a group of shirtless young men had ‘V-O-Z-I-N-H-A’ painted on their bare torsos.

His mother was in the crowd again, making the most of her newly-issued visa after apparent admin issues had forced her to miss the 0-0 draw with Spain, the game that made her son famous.

A few days earlier, when Portugal played in this stadium, the crowd went wild every time Cristiano Ronaldo touched the ball or appeared on the big screen: in this game, it was Vozinha.

Which is all pretty remarkable for a guy who only turned professional aged 26, who played last season in the Portuguese second tier, and who very nearly retired from international football after being dropped from their last, unsuccessful AFCON qualifying campaign.

Who knows what he will do after this tournament. But he’ll remember the summer of 2026 forever.

Nick Miller

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