England and Tuchel prepare to go deep but know ignominy may lie in wait if they fail

It was the 10th anniversary last Saturday of the Iceland debacle. Kolbeinn Sigthórsson’s winner sliding underneath Joe Hart’s dive, Wayne Rooney chugging away in midfield, Harry Kane taking corners, and Roy Hodgson being forced to conduct a sullen farewell press conference. It all feels like something from a fever dream but no, it did happen and that really was the state England were in when their Euro 2016 campaign came to an end.

Expectations could not have been lower before Gareth Southgate banished the fear. England had to take small steps before becoming contenders again, to the extent that beating Colombia on penalties in the last 16 of the 2018 World Cup and winning a knockout tie for the first time in 12 years was an achievement.

The challenge is different for Thomas Tuchel. When Southgate stepped down after losing the Euro 2024 final and the Football Association considered its next move the target was to bring in an elite coach. Two external data companies aided the search and one of the factors that led to Tuchel being given the job was the statistical evidence that he will give England an edge in knockout football.

The part where Tuchel earns his corn starts now. England’s target at the World Cup is to put a second star on the shirt but it would be pushing it to say they sailed through the group stage. The surge against Croatia in Dallas is yet to be repeated. Jude Bellingham and Kane are performing in attack, but there are problems to fix in almost every part of the team and there is a banana skin in football form to deal with when England face the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the last 32 on Wednesday afternoon.

Slip up in Atlanta and it could be curtains for Tuchel. The pressure is on England. They have never lost against an African side at the World Cup and are not going to be feted if they secure a last-16 tie in Mexico City by beating the DRC.

Tuchel knows this. He is aware that England topping Group L by beating Panama 2-0 last Saturday was greeted with a collective shrug of the shoulders.

But England’s head coach welcomes rising expectations. This is the moment when he comes into his own. Is it relevant that three of Tuchel’s players – Kane, Jordan Henderson and John Stones – were there against Iceland? “You will not find great athletes who didn’t suffer big defeats,” Tuchel said.

Expanding on the theme, he brought up the recent Netflix documentary about Rafael Nadal’s tennis career. “I thought he just wins every match out there every year,” Tuchel said. “But you see, wow, a year of injuries, a heavy loss there, another big defeat, doubts, sleepless nights. Even if you have scars, it is just the way it is. We all had our losses. Ask me how I felt after our 1-0 against New Zealand. I still remember thinking: ‘Am I good enough, am I good enough? Did I get this right? OK, let’s keep on.’”

Nobody can demand more from Tuchel than he demands from himself. The friendly against New Zealand in Tampa last month was in essence a training exercise. Tuchel still went away and asked himself where he was going wrong.

The best have that relentlessness. Tuchel’s record in knockout football at club level is a win ratio of 74%. He led Chelsea to Champions League glory in 2021 and took them to three domestic cup finals. He won domestic cups with Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain. He has a Club World Cup to his name. This is where Tuchel comes alive.

“I just love it,” he said, although the enthusiasm came with a warning. England struggled to create during last week’s draw with Ghana and Tuchel expects another low block against the DRC. Patience will be required. The DRC held Portugal in their group-stage encounter. Sébastien Desabre’s side will try to frustrate and counter. They will fancy themselves to hurt a shaky England defence.

Tuchel has an injury crisis at right-back, with Reece James hamstrung and Jarell Quansah nursing a twisted ankle. Hehas to decide whether to be cautious with Bukayo Saka, who has been dealing with an achilles problem, and hold the winger back before a possible last-16 tie in Mexico City. One argument is to keep Saka fresh and start Noni Madueke on the right. Another is to get the job done as quickly as possible.

England have the quality. Now they need conviction. On the left, Marcus Rashford needs to hone his end product if he keeps Anthony Gordon out again. Declan Rice will return to partner Elliot Anderson after being rested against Panama but both midfielders have been dealing with muscular problems.

It could turn into a slog. It could be penalties and Tuchel’s record in shootouts is up and down. “I tell you a funny story,” he said. “My first cup final in Germany with Dortmund in my first year, I play against Bayern and against Pep [Guardiola]. It was a nightmare because Bayern and Pep, from 120 possible points they had 130 in the season or something. It was a joke.

“We had the next highest number of points and were second. We prepared everything in this match. We needed to twist the tactics, and they twisted the tactics, and we twisted the structure and he twisted the structure. People got tired and it went into extra time.

“Then the whistle went and I was just not prepared. I forgot to prepare for a penalty shootout. We ended up asking the players: ‘Do you want to shoot? Do you want to shoot?’ They were ready for it.

“And we were absolutely not ready. We lost. A very painful experience and a big, big scar on me. I felt I had let myself down. It was the first time. It will never happen again. From there we started our own programme, our own preparation.

“Now I go into the FA and I have on the highest level a penalty programme. We trained it. We have a process in place. We are prepared. This has become a very special part of football now.

“We know exactly what is going to happen. This is still no guarantee that you win it. I had crazy penalty shootouts. Now it is on the highest level, thanks to the FA, of course, and thanks to my development. It is just another example that you sometimes have to have a painful experience to understand where to get better.”

A decade on, England will hope nobody has any reason to draw parallels with Iceland again.

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