Mexico vs. England World Cup mega-preview: Predictions, form guide, key players and more

Every last 16 game in a World Cup feels monumental, but Mexico vs England is bigger than most.

A clash between the co-hosts and one of the pre-tournament favourites at one of football’s most venerated venues, the Estadio Azteca, needed no more intrigue but the late talk of moving the kick-off forward by six hours before deciding against it was a twist nobody saw coming.

Here, we take a closer look at Sunday’s game and where it might be decided.

What’s the key information I need to know?

World rankings: Mexico 10th, England 4th

Venue: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Date: Sunday, July 5

Kick-off: 6pm local time (CST)/ 5pm PT/ 8pm ET/ 1am BST (Monday)

How did Mexico reach the last 16?

Mexico are yet to concede in their four matches and are averaging two goals a game. They topped Group A with wins over South Africa (2-0), South Korea (1-0) and the Czech Republic (3-0). Next came a 2-0 victory over a tired-looking Ecuador in the round of 32 at the Azteca, as star players Raul Jimenez and Julian Quinones secured their first World Cup knockout win since their last home tournament in 1986.

How did England reach the last 16?

Not as convincingly. After beating Croatia 4-2 in their opening group game, England drew 0-0 with Ghana and beat Panama 2-0 to top Group L to set up a round of 32 tie with DR Congo. Thomas Tuchel’s team were frustrated for much of that match and seemed to be heading out as they trailed to Brian Cipenga’s early opener. But captain Harry Kane stepped forward with two goals in the final 15 minutes to save his country and take his tournament tally to five and World Cup total over the years to 13, the joint sixth-highest total of all-time.

How to watch on TV

USA: 8pm ET / 5pm PT: Fox Sports (English), Telemundo/ Peacock (Spanish)

Mexico: 6pm CST: TelevisaUnivision/ TV Azteca

Canada: 8pm ET / 5pm PT: TSN /RDS

United Kingdom: 1am (Monday) BST: BBC One and iPlayer

What should we expect from Mexico?

The overall impression is of a team that is coming together at exactly the right moment. Mexico were unconvincing before the World Cup but have played themselves into the competition brilliantly, stumbling upon a system that seems to bring the best out of key players.

The defence, anchored by the enormous Cesar Montes and the classy Johan Vasquez, is an area of strength. Left-back Jesus Gallardo is solid and neat on the ball; on the right, Jorge Sanchez has nailed down his place with a series of committed performances. Throw in an acrobatic goalkeeper, Raul ‘Tala’ Rangel, and you can understand why they have yet to concede in this tournament.

Jimenez is a familiar face to the England players, having played in the Premier League for the last few years. He has only scored twice so far but his hold-up play has been good. He also occupies defenders, creating space for runners in behind. The main threat in that regard is Quinones, a direct, fearless dribbler and a capable finisher from the left flank. On the opposite side, Roberto Alvarado tends to drift inside into pockets of space, looking for opportunities to play through balls and crosses.

The midfield is anchored by Erik Lira, who is combative out of possession and tidy with the ball. Most of the creative burden falls upon Gilberto Mora, Mexico’s 17-year-old sensation, who tends to drift more to the right, where he likes to combine with Alvarado. Mora is two-footed, slippery and smart beyond his years; England take note.

The final midfield spot is likely to go to Luis Romo, who is probably Mexico’s weakest link at this point. He is a tall, elegant passer, but isn’t the quickest and can be got at. Still, this is a very balanced side, and one that tends to fly out of the blocks in search of a goal. The first 20 or 30 minutes will be crucial to their chances — and to England’s.

Jack Lang

What should we expect from England?

The most important thing is that England are still in the competition. They have probably performed at around par so far, taking seven points from a tricky group and then scraping past DR Congo in Atlanta in the last 32.

But it is hard to get an accurate read on exactly how good England are. They came here wanting to play aggressive, athletic, dominant football, like a Premier League team. At times they have done that, not least in the second half of their opening game against Croatia in Dallas. But it has often been a slog. They have spent a lot of the tournament getting stuck, not least in the Ghana game and then for most of the Panama game. And there were spells at the start against DR Congo when England appeared to have lost their heads, and were close to ‘doing an Iceland’ (a reference to the notorious defeat at Euro 2016).

Part of the issue here is player availability. England arrived with fitness concerns over key players. Declan Rice does not look himself, Bukayo Saka has largely been used as an impact sub, Reece James has picked up a hamstring injury and John Stones has only started once. Even though they have only conceded three goals in four games, the defence has often looked like a mess.

This England team is more reliant than ever before on Kane and Jude Bellingham, the two players who are on top of their game. Kane has five goals already and effectively saved England from an early exit in Atlanta. Bellingham looks sharp, hungry, focused and consistent. If those two keep playing well then England will have a chance against anyone. But they do not look like the perfectly coordinated unit many were expecting.

Jack Pitt-Brooke

Who is the star player for each team?

England’s team is littered with stars but Harry Kane holds the key. Their four matches to this point have seen him do it all, be it dropping deep to spray passes, shifting into wider areas to create overloads, or most importantly, score goals of different types at crucial junctures. Mexico will be a threat in transition backed by a raucous Azteca crowd, so Rice and Elliot Anderson will have plenty to do.

For the hosts, Julian Quinones has been brilliant in taking players on and amping up the Mexican fans. Quinones, along with Alvarado on the other side, have created plenty of chances for the rejuvenated Jimenez. He will pose a challenge for England centre-backs Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa, who have looked shaky at times against direct oppositions who attack at pace.

Anantaajith Raghuraman

Is there any history in this match-up?

England have a deep history at the Azteca. In 1970 they were 2-0 up against West Germany with a little over 20 minutes to go in the World Cup quarter-finals and lost 3-2 after extra-time. Sixteen years later, Diego Maradona scored with the ‘Hand of God’ and the ‘Goal of the Century’ to knock England out in the World Cup quarter-finals. For a certain generation of England fans that game is the definitive moment in the team’s modern history. That topic has been everywhere in the build-up to this game, and Tuchel even said earlier this week that England might be due some karmic revenge because of it.

But that game, of course, was against Argentina. It was only held in Mexico. And so while playing in Mexico is profoundly significant — given the pain of the 1970 and 1986 World Cups — playing against Mexico is a slightly different prospect.

England have played nine games against Mexico over the years but only once in a major tournament. They were drawn in the same group at the 1966 World Cup, with England enjoying the home advantage at Wembley. Bobby Charlton and Roger Hunt scored in a 2-0 win.

Since then it has only been friendlies, although two of them — in 1969 and 1985 — were both at the Azteca, in both cases coming one year before England came to Mexico for the World Cup. The most recent game was at Wembley in May 2010, a warm-up before England flew out to South Africa for the 2010 World Cup. Ledley King, Peter Crouch and Glen Johnson scored England’s goals in a 3-1 win.

Jack Pitt-Brooke

Where will the game be won and lost?

According to the science, such is the altitude disadvantage for England, that Mexico effectively start this game 1-0 up. Estadio Azteca sits at 2,200m (7,220ft) above sea level, with every 1,000m of altitude gain worth half a goal to the home team based on prior research into South American football.

That means England must avoid a repeat of conceding early in the manner they did to DR Congo. They were forced to expend a lot, physically and mentally, into the comeback win. Repeating that will exhaust them here, especially following just four days rest.

For England to win, they need patient possession and to slow the game down as much as possible. This plays into their technical superiority too, while Mexico have been fairly watertight — they and Spain are the only teams yet to concede, and Javier Aguirre’s side have allowed just two goals in 12 games this calendar year, having kept clean sheets in friendly draws with Uruguay and Portugal.

England must get their press right when they do commit, as DR Congo played through and round them. That’s because Mexico have a good front line. Left-winger Quinones has scored three times, and Alvarado on the other side is responsible for creating three of Mexico’s eight goals. England fans will know former Fulham and current Wolverhampton Wanderers striker Jimenez. He’s a penalty box threat and gets plenty of chances from crosses.

Liam Tharme

Who do our experts think will win?

Dan Sheldon: England 1-2 Mexico. Before the tournament started, I predicted this game — in the altitude and difficult atmosphere — will be where England’s World Cup ends. They should have more than enough quality to beat Mexico, but the fact it is at the Azteca makes it an even tougher challenge.

Seb Stafford-Bloor: England 1 -0 Mexico. Mexico’s quality is as much an adversary as the altitude; I still think England have the goalscoring efficiency to survive. Great goalscorers win World Cup matches and Harry Kane is the best of them. Can England exert a physical advantage? On paper, yes, but — sea-level trepidation aside — the lack of verve against DR Congo was concerning. There’s no way this is anything other than close and excruciating.

Oliver Kay: Mexico 2-1 England (AET). If it was on neutral territory, I would fancy England. But the atmosphere, the heat, the altitude, an extra day’s rest… all of that plays into Mexico’s hands. It could be a mad one. Crazy refereeing decisions, red cards the lot. It will be an enormous test of England’s character as well as their quality. But if it gets as far as penalties, I fancy England.

Matt Slater: Mexico 1-2 England. I had this the other way around until Brad Friedel, one of my favourite Americans, steeled my resolve by telling Gary Lineker’s NetFlix show that Mexico are mediocre and they run out of puff, too. I am not entirely sure that last bit is true but I am back on board the Tommy Tuchel Train.

Predicted line-ups

Tell me one thing about England that’s going to make me look clever to my friends

Nobody is as good in the air in the opposition box as England. Since 2018 they have scored nine headed World Cup goals and had 54 shots — the next most by those metrics are France (seven goals, 32 shots). Set pieces are an obvious threat, and watch out for how England pack the penalty area at crosses. Kane headed in against Panama and DR Congo, and Bellingham is making a habit of crashing the box.

Tell me one thing about Mexico that’s going to make me look clever to my friends

Among teams to make the knockout rounds, Mexico have the highest cross completion rate — one in three of their crosses finds its target, comfortably better than the one-in-five average at this World Cup. They actually cross infrequently, picking their moments rather than relying on volume to create chances. Jimenez has won eight first contacts off balls delivered from the wings, a metric that only Uruguay’s Federico Vinas (nine) beats him in.

Liam Tharme

Who is the referee?

The referee for England’s match against Mexico could not be more experienced, as Alireza Faghani is setting a record by officiating at his fourth World Cup.

Regarded as the top referee in Asia, he has an impressive list of prestige appointments, including the Fifa Club World Cup final won by Chelsea in New Jersey last year.

He was still living in his native Iran when he took part in the 2014 tournament in Brazil and the 2018 edition in Russia, and when he reffed the gold medal match at the 2016 Olympics.

Since 2019, he has been living in Australia, operating on its A-League and covering matches in the Asian Champions League.

Faghani takes no nonsense on the field and is unlikely to be swayed by player protests. Kane and Bellingham, who have persistently been in the referee’s ear in all four England matches to date, would be well advised to focus on their own games. Anyone trying to berate this referee into submission will be wasting their time and emotional energy.

The only question marks hanging over Faghani are his fitness — at 48, he may struggle with refereeing at altitude — and his chequered relationship with VAR at World Cups.

In 2022, he was front-runner for the final in his home continent, until he accepted the advice of Qatari video official Abdullah Al Marri and awarded Portugal a late penalty for handball against Uruguay.

He will have wished he had stuck with his original decision, as the call was deemed incorrect and he did not receive another appointment.

That may well have been weighing on his mind a few weeks ago back in New Jersey, when he was asked by Saudi VAR Abdullah Alshehri to review his decision not to award Kylian Mbappe a penalty in the France vs Senegal match.

The replays showed a clear foul by Sadio Mane, but Faghani stuck to his guns and announced that, in his view, Mbappe had initiated the contact.

That was nonsense, and might have seen him sent packing again, but this time around FIFA head of referees Pierluigi Collina has been more forgiving of officials who make obvious errors.

Graham Scott, The Athletic’s refereeing expert

Who will the winners play next?

This match is the final game of the tournament to be held in Mexico, with all fixtures from the quarter-finals onwards taking place in the U.S.

The winners will head to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, to face either Brazil or Norway on July 11, with the match kicking off at 2pm PT/ 5pm ET/ 10pm BST. The tie between Brazil and Norway takes place at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, on Sunday, with kick off at 1pm PT/ 4pm ET / 9pm BST.

Essential reading

Click here to read article