From ‘awful’ axing to fixing a ‘nightmare’: The secret behind shock NRL transformation

Justin Holbrook’s sudden dismissal at the Titans came as a “shock” to everybody.

From AJ Brimson and then interim head coach Jim Lenihan to Holbrook himself.

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The now Knights coach told The Courier Mail at the time that he felt “awful” and was “totally gutted” by the mid-season axing, having lifted the club from last place to ninth in his first year in charge.

Holbrook then guided the Titans to the finals in his second season but was denied much of a chance to build on that result, axed in 2023 after an indifferent 6-7 start to the year.

Then Titans owner Rebecca Frizelle told Fox League’s Face-to-Face at the time that the club needed a “hard edge”, hiring a proven premiership winner in Des Hasler before doubling down on their bold strategic plan: to win four premierships by 2030.

“Which sounds huge,” she added. “Two for the women and two for the men.”

Well, it’s already 2026 and while they came up just short of winning a NRLW title in 2023, the men’s team fell well short of expectations under Hasler with two-straight finishes inside the bottom four.

Less than a month after Hasler was axed by the Titans, Holbrook was unveiled as the new head coach of the Knights following two years with the Roosters as their attack coach.

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The task was in many ways just as daunting as the one he faced when he first took over at the Gold Coast.

Although unlike the Titans, the Knights had been a regular fixture in finals football before a disastrous 2025 season which saw them claim the wooden spoon for the first time since 2017.

The arrival of marquee recruit Dylan Brown on a 10-year, $13 million contract along with the return of a healthy Kalyn Ponga gave Newcastle fans hope. But it all hinged on the new coach.

And based on early results, the Holbrook-coached Knights look to be a resounding success.

More than anything, the club’s turnaround from wooden spooners to top eight contenders under Holbrook has been a lesson in reinvention rather than transformation.

Sure, there was the player turnover you would expect from a club that fell well short of expectations. Leo Thompson, Jayden Brailey and Kai Pearce-Paul were among the bigger names to leave along with depth pieces in Jack Cogger and Jack Hetherington.

Brown, meanwhile, headlined a relatively short list of new faces which also included Sandon Smith and Trey Mooney.

But the bigger challenge for Holbrook was finding consistency in a spine that had constantly been chopped and changed under O’Brien’s watch, along with also getting the most out of a young forward pack led by Jacob Saifiti and Tyson Frizell.

The change has been dramatic, and it will be there for his former club to see when the Knights face the Titans at Magic Round on Sunday afternoon.

INSIDE THE MIND OF HOLBROOK... AND HIS ‘BIGGEST STRENGTH’

Few players know Holbrook better than Roosters and South Sydney legend Luke Keary, who was coached by him as an assistant at the Tricolours during a long period of success.

Keary revealed the key to Holbrook’s coaching philosophy is keeping “everything so simple”.

“But he has an amazing eye for what you’re good at,” Keary added, speaking to foxsports.com.au.

“I felt like he knew my game sometimes better than I did and then he put you in the positions and set up things around each person to make you play your best.

“And he said it in the pre-grame on the weekend, we don’t play a traditional style because the guys I’ve got need to play to their strengths... it was exactly like what he did with us twice when I was there with him.”

Holbrook’s ability to adapt and re-invent his style depending on the team and the players he is working with also stood out to Keary across two stints at the Roosters under Robinson.

“It was different both times I was with him,” Keary said.

“What he’s gone and done up there (at Newcastle) is different to how he set up the Roosters.

“He’s a very good coach... he’s not like Trent Robinson in that he doesn’t overcomplicate anything. He’s just simple, knows people’s strengths, knows what they’re good at, knows what they’re not good at and then knows how to play into that. That’s his biggest strength.”

Now, of course, coaching is not that simple. If it was as easy, anyone could do it. But as Keary went on to explain, there is “an art” to getting the best out of each individual player while also creating a cohesive unit out of those different strengths.

“They know so much and they’re very intelligent and smart and they see a lot of things that we don’t disclose, but then how they convey that message to the team and different individuals and knowing when to give more information, when to pull back, when to just keep it really basic and when to actually dig into different stuff. He’s very good at it,” Keary said.

“The information he gave you was very deliberate and for a reason. Where as it can be difficult as a coach to know how much, what not to give, what to give, how not to overload. He had a very good sense of it.”

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HOW HOLBROOK FOUND THE FIX TO ‘DIFFICULT PUZZLE’

That is particularly handy for a Knights team that has in previous years struggled to find its identity with so many moving parts in the key positions.

Newcastle is certainly not short on attacking threats this year with Ponga at the back, Brown at seven and speedster Fletcher Sharpe alongside him in the halves.

It was a “difficult puzzle to solve” as club legend Matty Johns put it earlier this week.

Holbrook, however, has found the right formula to get the most out of all three by varying who is at first, second and third receiver in attacking territory.

“It’s very fluid and he loves to let (Mat) Croker play with the ball in midfield,” Keary said.

“Then when it gets up into good ball, his best players have their hands on the ball more than anyone else.”

Of course, the risk is that strategy could end up leaving the players confused in their roles and result in a disorganised attack.

Instead, Holbrook has empowered his playmakers to chime in and out of plays as they unfold.

“They’ve obviously set it up really well where those guys aren’t in each other’s way and it’s not clunky,” Keary said.

“It looks fluid, which is hard to do. We speak about different spines and giving them time. This is a full new spine and they’ve hit the ground running, with injuries too.”

That fine balance is perhaps best illustrated in the play of Brown, who is on the kind of contract that normally requires having your hands on the ball at all times.

Instead, Johns’ favourite part of the 25-year-old’s game at the moment is the way he picks and chooses his moments to chime in and out of plays.

“On the weekend Kalyn was on song and Fletcher was doing his thing and you just see him take a sort of half-step back,” Johns said on ‘Matty and Cronk’.

“Not disappearing out of the contest. When I say a half-step back, just feeding early (ball) and things like that.”

That doesn’t mean Brown isn’t engaging the line though. In fact, Brown is averaging 10.3 line engagements per game. For context, Dally M leader Nathan Cleary averages 12.6.

Brown is digging into the line just enough to bring the defence in, but not too far as to take space away from Ponga to work his magic on the outside.

Premiership-winning halfback Cooper Cronk has seen a similar improvement in Newcastle’s attack under Holbrook this year, declaring there is a “perfect timing” to their passing game.

“They’re getting an advantage line and pushing forward and then looking to play,” he added.

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THE INCREDIBLE NUMBERS BEHIND NEWCASTLE’S RISE

The eye test certainly tells the story. But the numbers do too.

In 2025 the Knights scored just 338 points, with NRL 360 co-host Braith Anasta calling their attack a “nightmare” at the time.

This season they already have 276 in just 10 games, going from an NRL-worst 14.08 points per game last year to 27.6.

That number ranks seventh-best in the league and would have been even higher had they not lost Ponga and Brown to injuries earlier in the season.

The Knights have been particularly lethal from inside their own half this year, leading the NRL in long-range tries with 13. In fact, they already have seven more tries than they did last year from outside the red zone.

Interestingly, the Knights have averaged almost identical run metres while they have been tackled fewer times in the opposition 20, which if anything speaks to how much more clinical they have been in capitalising on their opportunities.

That is also born out in Fox Sports Lab’s Expected Set Points data, which found the Knights scored only 66 per cent of the points the average team would have with the possession they had in 2025.

This year, that figure has jumped all the way up to 135 per cent. Only Souths and Penrith have performed better so far this season.

It also highlights how dangerous the likes of Sharpe and Ponga can be in open space, which has been a more common sight in this year’s faster version of the competition.

The main beneficiaries of the Knights’ improved attack has been their wingers with Greg Marzhew crossing for five against the Dragons to take his 2026 tally to 13 in just nine games, compared to just six tries in 18 games last season.

Meanwhile, Dom Young has scored 11 tries in 10 games after scoring four in 10 games last season following his mid-season switch back to the club from the Roosters.

Newcastle’s turnaround in numbers in 2026 vs 2025

Points: 27.6 (7th) vs 14.08 (17th)

Tries: 5 (5th) vs 2.54 (17th)

Linebreaks: 5.9 (4th) vs 4.29 (13th)

Red zone ratio*: 7.4 (3rd) vs 13.8 (17th)

*The number of tackles inside the opposition 20 on average needed to score a try

THE PONGA FACTOR

There was no bigger stamp of approval for Holbrook than Ponga’s decision to ink a landmark extension last month, which keeps him at the Hunter until at least the end of 2030.

In a statement confirming the news, Ponga declared that he wants to win a premiership at Newcastle.

“And I want to do it so badly,” he added.

“Justin has created an environment that everyone wants to be a part of, come in every day and learn and train and get better.”

The proof of Holbrook’s magic touch as a coach is in Ponga’s return to his best despite an injury-disrupted start to the season, with the Knights fullback averaging a league-high 2.3 linebreak assists per game.

Johns said Ponga has entered the 2026 season with “some serious fire in the belly” and the evidence has been there for everyone to see.

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“He’s really got his head on,” the legendary Knight added.

“The way he’s leading the side — he’s just invested, he is chipping blokes if they’re not doing the right thing on the field.”

The little things, like the way Ponga is getting around his teammates after every positive play or even error, has also stood out to Cronk and to him, that is in part a reflection of the culture Holbrook has already built in his short time at the club.

“He is high-fiving, he’s a captain of this team, he’s leading by example but also by spirit and whatever Justin Holbrook has done to instil or embed this confidence (and) belief — Kalyn Ponga is executing that better than anyone from Newcastle,” Cronk said.

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