‘Alarming’ NSW reality... and change Daley must make; big ‘problem’ Ponga has to fix

It is now or never for the Queensland Maroons.

Billy Slater’s side face the NSW Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Wednesday night as they look to level the series.

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All eyes will be on how Slater and Laurie Daley use Reece Walsh and Ethan Strange — if at all — along with a potential Blues change that could help them stop an alarming trend.

Read on for the biggest talking points ahead of Game 3!

‘ALARMING’ NUMBERS BEHIND CHANGE BLUES NEED TO MAKE

They are the “alarming” numbers that Laurie Daley needs to consider before making his final decision on whether to once again ignore calls to start Cameron Murray.

At least, that is the opinion of veteran journalist Brent Read after the Fox Sports Lab revealed just how important Murray has been to NSW’s success in the State of Origin arena.

There have been calls from former players including Braith Anasta for Murray to start at lock, with skipper Isaah Yeo to either shift to prop or to come off the bench as he did in the 2024 series when the Souths star killed it in jersey No.13 in games two and three.

The Blues are 3-0 when Murray starts at lock, with the Fox Sports Lab unearthing some remarkable numbers that highlight just how good the Blues are when he’s on the field.

Throughout his 16 games for his state, the Blues are +174 points when he’s on the field, while they’re -48 when he’s on the bench, including in game one where the Maroons raced out to an 18-0 lead before he came on.

Read called the numbers “alarming”, adding that if Daley is not seriously considering making the change he is “not doing his job”.

Anasta, who has been making the argument in favour of starting Murray for weeks now, said Yeo would be better suited to shifting to the front row where he could “play with his quick feet, his quick play-the-ball and if he gets an offload he gets an offload”.

“But get him out of the way of the seven and nine,” Anasta added.

It seems, however, that Daley is once again going to opt against making any late changes based on his comments to media on Tuesday.

“Obviously Cam is a wonderful player and he’s made such a huge impact on the group this year,” Daley said.

“Yeoy will probably find himself up front tomorrow during the game. It’s just the roles they both play and you could have that option, but for us at the moment where it’s at, Cam gives us plenty coming off the bench and that’s the way we’ll go.

“If they’re on together, great. If one’s on and one’s off, it’s good.”

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Add in Victor Radley and there is the possibility of the Blues having three genuine ball-playing middles on the field at once. It is something that Luke Keary said would be a “very dangerous” prospect for Queensland, while Yeo called Radley and Murray a “real point of difference” for the Blues in Game 1.

“He’s been outstanding for a long time, and we’ve definitely missed him in the Origin arena when he had the Achilles last year and when he had a concussion in another game,” said Yeo, who has been the standout lock forward for the past six years.

“He’s just one of those players who makes every team he’s in better, whether that’s at lock, coming off the bench or playing in the back row.

“He’s the ultimate professional. You can see that from afar, but you certainly see it when you get in this environment.

“I thought what he and Victor (Radley) brought into the game off the bench was really important. They brought a point of difference for us.”

NSW halfback Nathan Cleary has the pleasure of playing with Yeo at club level every week, while he gets to throw in Murray three times a year when they pull on the Blues jersey.

The world’s best playmaker loves working with two of the most effective link men in rugby league, with Murray providing a point of difference that Yeo can’t match.

“He just adds a different type of leg speed,” Cleary said.

“I’ve seen Cam play in the centres before, and that speaks volumes to what he brings with his leg speed.

“He’s got great ball-playing ability as well, so I think the mix of him and ‘Yowie’ is so dynamic. It’s a pleasure to play alongside those two guys.”

Whether he starts or not is immaterial for Murray, whose sole concern is seeing his state lift the shield again after an injury kept him out of last year’s series.

“When I play Origin, I just try to be myself out there. I try to go out and play to my strengths and do what I know needs to be done to get the job done in Origin,” he said.

“Origin’s all about effort and going out and doing your best for your teammate, and so that’s what I try to do.

“If I’m coming off the bench, then I try to bring energy. If I start, I try to start with a level head and I just go out there and try to be the best version of myself and play as best I can in a Blues jersey.”

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‘DANGEROUS’ REECE WALSH TOUTED AS GAME CHANGER FOR ORIGIN II

He is the ultimate “wildcard” in Origin II according to Cooper Cronk, and former Queensland coach Kevin Walters believes recalled star Reece Walsh could prove the difference for Queensland ahead of their must-win game in Melbourne on Wednesday.

Walsh was something of a surprise inclusion in Billy Slater’s Game II squad on the bench, after being overlooked for the series opener following a patchy run of club form.

Walters, the current Australian coach, is a noted fan of the Brisbane fullback and believes he has the ability to tear the Origin arena wide open at the MCG on Wednesday night.

“I think Kalyn Ponga will move into the middle, and Reece will go back to fullback, that would be one way that Billy could use Reece in the game,” Walters told The Late Show with Fletch on Fox League.

“That’s going to create a lot of problems for New South Wales… I think he (Walsh) can be the difference in Melbourne.

“I just can’t see why you’d bring Reece into the side, and then just have him there in case something happens.

“Kalyn Ponga and Reece Walsh on the field at the same time is dangerous.”

Fellow Fox League expert Luke Keary, however, said he believes Walsh could spend the entire 80 minutes on the bench given he is essentially a replacement for the role Ezra Mam had in the series opener.

It is hard to see Walsh not getting some run, especially if Queensland needs points late in the game, given his potential to break the game open.

The NRL needs no introduction to Walsh’s brilliance. In the Broncos run into the finals in 2025, the mercurial star put entire sides on notice with his devastating attack – both in terms of support play and with the ball in hand.

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While Walsh’s 2026 campaign has been hampered with injury, the 25-year-old has no reservations about his ability to bust open Wednesday’s game.

“The way the game is going these days, the ball in play and the penalty count, it’s crazy at the moment,” Walsh said.

“I can bring some spark and be that point of difference. Tired bodies, that’s something I hunt for in games and if I do play a short or long time, I’m prepared to do it for the team.

“I just want to do what’s best for the team. Whether that might be in the front-row, on the wing or in the halves, whatever it might be.

“That’s where my mindset is at, preparing myself but also preparing the boys and if I get an opportunity to do a job in whatever position, I will do it.”

While Slater remains tight-lipped about where he will deploy Walsh from the bench – with murmurs the 23-year-old could be used as a halves back-up should Sam Walker or Cameron Munster come down with injury – there is every chance he could be used in a position other than fullback.

Walsh poured petrol on his potential positioning last week when admitting he played most of his junior years in the halves.

“In short, yes, we do have options there,” Slater said, when asked if Walsh could be deployed out of position.

“I’ll keep all that stuff in-house.

“I’ve got a great relationship with Reece that goes back to when he debuted for the Warriors, and he’s built a really good game. If needed, I’m sure he’ll go out there and perform that.

“We all know what Reece is capable of doing, and now we’ve got 10 days to go after our best footy and help our players be at their best.”

THE ONE BLUES SNUB EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT

It has been the overriding talk of Laurie Daley’s selections for Origin Game II: has Manly star Haumole Olakau’atu been short-changed after he was dropped from the starting side in Game I to 20th man three weeks later?

Much of the NRL world was left scratching their heads after Daley replaced the 27-year-old with Newcastle forward Dylan Lucas, with the likes of Willie Mason, Andrew Johns and Brad Fittler questioning the rationale behind the decision.

Chief among the sceptics was former Manly assistant and Fox League panellist Michael Ennis.

“I’m probably a bit biased. I’ve worked with Haumole the last couple of seasons and he’s in the best form of his career,” argued Ennis.

“He was devastating against South Sydney on return after game one. There’s no doubt the opening 20 minutes we didn’t get it right. But that wasn’t Haumole. There were multiple reasons for that and he’s the most damaging and devastating right edge back rower in the competition.

“I love Dylan Lucas. I absolutely think he’s a rep player. But I think Haumole is too and I believe Haumole is the type of person, from me knowing him, that when you back him and give him three or four Origins consistently... he just goes like that (upwards). I’m disappointed for him.”

Olakau’atu finished Origin Game I with 10 runs, 90 metres, three tackle busts, two try assists and 23 tackles - along with one key error and two missed tackles. He was back to his destructive best for Manly against South Sydney last weekend, and was reportedly confident of retaining his place in the Blues side.

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The theories around Olakau’atu’s dumping have been varied, with some suggesting his kick chase efforts are to blame, or that his effort areas off the ball were lacking and that when the Blues didn’t have the ball and were in defensive mode, the Queenslanders would go and attack his side of the field.

Elsewhere, Lucas’ strong motor and 80-minute work rate has been lauded as the big reason for his inclusion in Daley’s side. The 25-year-old has missed just 10 minutes of game time in his 11 appearances for Newcastle this year.

Fox League host Braith Anasta argued the toss on Triple M last week, but acknowledged that Daley might be a step ahead of onlookers with his decision to bring Lucas into the side.

“Olakau’atu is the best back rower in the comp and has been all year. Is he hard done by? Yes. But Origin’s different,” Anasta said.

“Maybe they’ve seen some worrying signs or movements that they think it is a concern heading to Melbourne where Queensland is going to be desperate. They probably see Dylan Lucas and his fast feet and his fitness and his ability to get through the game and cause a bit of havoc there and they probably see him suiting their game plan in Game 2 more than Olakau’atu.

“But Laurie can’t come out and say that because he doesn’t want to give anything away to Queensland and people are probably more pissed off that they haven’t got an explanation as to why he’s been dropped.”

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PONGA’S TACKLING TECHNIQUE UNDER THE MICROSCOPE

Queensland star Kalyn Ponga has confirmed he will look to coach Billy Slater to remedy his tackling technique in the lead-up to Game II, after admitting he could have “done better” in the incident which led to his send-off in Game I.

Ponga was sensationally sent off in the 57th minute of the series opener for a high shoulder charge on New South Wales debutant Tolu Koula. The controversial hit left Koula with a failed HIA, and sparked a record-breaking comeback victory for the Blues.

The Newcastle fullback’s tackling technique has since come under the microscope after a separate incident during Newcastle’s Round 14 clash with the Storm, during which Ponga came across in cover defence and saved a try with a shoulder charge on Will Warbrick.

Ponga’s shoulder contacted the ball, forcing a knock on. It wasn’t picked up by the officials and play was allowed to carry on. He wasn’t placed on report either.

However, upon closer inspections the incident showed strong similarities with the Ponga’s infamous Origin tackle.

“Kalyn Ponga definitely has a technique problem with his tackling. It looked very similar to what happened last Wednesday night, but he made contact with the ball,” Greg Alexander said.

“If that makes any contact with the head, he’s absolutely in trouble,” Cooper Cronk added.

On NRL 360, the panel said the incident was part of a broader issue with Ponga’s tackling technique.

“His tackling technique is a problem. That’s why he couldn’t play in the halves,” host Braith Anasta confirmed.

Former Queenslander Gordon Tallis agreed: “I couldn’t imagine the footwork, athleticism you need and you have a split second to make it. The three tackles that stand out are wrong shoulder tackles.”

Meanwhile, The Daily Telegraph’s Brent Read said Ponga’s technique is “an area of his game he needs to address as it’s become a bit of a problem now” – citing previous examples.

For his part, Ponga fronted the press last week and admitted that his technique could be improved.

“I definitely do acknowledge that I can be better in moments. Obviously, what happened in game one, whether right or wrong, I still put my team in a certain position,” Ponga said.

“There’s definitely some accountability on my end. It is tough. It’s a position that happens in a split second. I’m running as fast as I can, someone else is running as fast as they can to a corner... but I do acknowledge I need to be better for sure.”

So who does Ponga — one of the NRL’s best fullbacks – look to for advice in a bid to improve his tackling technique? His Maroons coach, of course.

“I think I’ll have a chat with Billy and hopefully nut some of that out, but I think for me it’s just getting to the position earlier so that way I can sort of steady my feet and be in a better position,” Ponga said.

“But I’ve got someone that’s the best in the game, or was the best in the game, and hopefully I can learn some things from him for sure.”

X-FACTOR SET TO IGNITE MCG... BUT THERE’S A LINGERING CONCERN

Will Blues rookie Mark Nawaqanitawase sink or swim in his Origin debut?

There’s no doubt the former rugby union star has the attributes and quality to shine at this level.

In his debut NRL season last year, he led the league in tries, showing off his freakish athletic ability to score several of those.

Nawaqanitawase is not just a human highlight reel and one of the game’s best finishers though. He isn’t afraid of the tough stuff out of his own end, which could be key to arrest the Blues’ recent poor starts.

“You can’t underestimate his carries out of the back end and trying to take pressure off the forwards. Those carries will be very important,” NRL360 host Braith Anasta.

“Laurie said on Monday that he surprises you how big he is. He’s 6 foot 4, he’s a big lump of a kid. He will try something and coming out of his own end, he’s going to add something for New South Wales,” Maroons legend Gorden Tallis added.

It’s worth noting that Tallis was able to see Nawaqanitawase work at his craft first hand when he was an assistant coach under Kevin Walters over on last year’s Ashes tour.

Replacing the injured Casey McLean in the backline, Nawaqanitawase will start at right wing with Tolu Koula moving into the centres.

“Mark Nawaqanitawase will play on the right side alongside Kotoni Staggs and Mitch Moses. Tolu Koula has played a bit of both as has Brian To’o but I think they will go to the left-hand side,” The Daily Telegraph’s Dean Ritchie revealed on Monday night’s episode of NRL360.

At his preferred position, the Maroons will have to be on high alert against Nawaqanitawase, who isn’t afraid to chance his arm.

However, that roll the dice mentality could play into Queensland’s favour.

“A clanger in Origin can be fatal that’s my only concern but I hope he doesn’t go into his shell and plays like he has been,” Ritchie said.

“I don’t think he will. He’s only 25 and he’s got a bit of x-factor and eyes up footy but in the back of your mind, you’ve just got to be a bit more careful. It isn’t club footy.”

Brent Read agreed with Ritchie.

He said the Maroons will try and exploit the debutant, but conceded Nawaqanitawase could just as easily become a big headache for the Maroons as they attempt to save the series at the MCG.

“He’s a big threat in the air. He’s got a bit of X-factor about him but he can make a blue so I think Queensland will target him, put some pressure on and try and force some errors out of him but he can cause some carnage as well,” Read said.

THEORY BEHIND STAGGERING BLUES NUMBERS

The Blues may have pulled off a great escape in Game 1, but they know they can’t afford to make the same mistake in Melbourne.

And while Laurie Daley has seemingly made it clear he won’t be doing it, one former Blues player believes he could make a late team change to spark a fast start from his team.

Under Daley, NSW has been outscored 104 points to 48 in the opening 20 minutes of his 19 games in charge.

More recently, NSW has conceded 20-plus first half points in each of the past three Origins and only scored 12. As a reminder, Queensland led at halftime 26-6 in Game 2 and 20-0 in Game 3 last year while going up 20-6 in Game 1 this year.

It prompted Luke Keary to question if Cameron Murray could start the game, with Isaah Yeo dropping to the bench “just to stoke a reaction”.

Daley said Yeo would likely find himself in the front row at some point on Wednesday, but added that “at the moment” Murray offers “plenty off the bench” and “that’s the way we’ll go”.

If it’s not a positional change, Cooper Cronk questioned whether Daley and the Blues coaching staff would look at doing things differently in the lead-up to Wednesday’s game and specifically in the final 10 to 15 minutes before kick-off.

Cronk, who knows the Origin arena better than most, spoke to how there is a “big gap” between when the coach addresses the playing group and they then run out and finally actually touch the ball.

“I think the New South Wales coaching staff would have addressed these starts and they’ll change it slightly,” Cronk said.

“It’s also up to the players to start the game with the right mindset. I don’t think New South Wales miss this start.

“I think if you look at the starts, Queensland through Billy get the intensity, the emotion and the key parts to starting the game with a good balance. I think he speaks in a way that you must have them humming.

“Whereas I think Laurie Daley may be focused too much on emotion, may be focused too much on the fundamentals or whatever. He just doesn’t get that balance right.

“Whenever you lose a game or win a game, you review your performance within an inch of your life. I think the New South Wales coaching staff will address their starts and they’ll tweak a couple of things, but they’ll put a lot of responsibility on the players.”

That was certainly the theme from NSW’s players before Game 2, with captain Isaah Yeo defending Daley and the coaching staff by placing all the blame on the slow starts on the playing group.

“We’re the ones out there,” he said.

“It’s been spoken about over the past two series. We’ve shot ourselves in the foot in different ways so you need to learn your lessons from it but ultimately, you don’t want to make too much of a thing about it because you don’t want to tighten up as a group.

“There’s got to be individual accountability on getting your job right because if you look at all types of rugby league, international, NRL, Origin, you need to get your start right.

“We understand we need to be better but I want us to play with a freedom and not be tightened by it.”

Reece Robson, meanwhile, said not all slow starts are created equal.

While the Blues “weren’t where we needed to be” in the final two games of last year’s series, Robson said the 2026 opener was simply a matter of the Blues coughing up the ball too much.

“That was really all it was,” he added.

“Our footy was there. We could see at times when we were playing footy. Every time we got down there, we asked a good question or got points, so I think that’s exciting for us, that we know that when can complete a bit more and be a bit more disciplined, that we’ll get more opportunities down in there and know that we can come up with points when we are down there.”

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