Harry Kane: Why Real Madrid Champions League tie could make or break his Ballon d'Or hopes

No player in Europe comes close to matching Harry Kane's goalscoring record this season – but could an untimely ankle problem scupper his Ballon d'Or chances?

The Englishman has scored 53 times in 45 appearances for club and country this term but knows goals alone won't be enough to land the award, which is why he will be desperate to be fit for Bayern Munich's crunch Champions League game against Real Madrid on Tuesday (20:00 BST).

Kane, who missed Saturday's dramatic 3-2 victory at Freiburg because of the injury, ended his trophy drought by winning the Bundesliga last season, but more domestic honours in Germany won't secure him football's most prestigious individual prize.

Rightly or wrongly, the Ballon d'Or isn't simply a case of rewarding solo brilliance. It is increasingly a prerequisite to also being part of a team that lands one of the game's biggest titles - the Champions League, World Cup or a continental equivalent such as the European Championship.

Kane will get two bites at the cherry this year, captaining England at the World Cup in the summer, but his first – and arguably best - chance comes with Bayern.

The Bavarians have been in scintillating form this season, winning 37 of 43 games, but will need their talisman fit and firing as their European credentials are tested in a quarter-final first leg at the Bernabeu.

"I could score 100 goals this season, but if I don't win the Champions League or the World Cup, you're probably not going to win the Ballon d'Or," Kane said in November. "It's the same with any player. You have to be winning those major trophies."

History suggests he is right. Since 2006, almost 80% of Ballon d'Or winners have claimed the accolade in a year when they also lifted either the Champions League or a major international tournament, such as the World Cup, Euros or Copa America.

Only two players have defied that trend in the past two decades and both are all-time greats who can be considered outliers. Lionel Messi won the award in 2010, 2012 and 2019 despite Champions League semi-final exits for his Barcelona side, with Cristiano Ronaldo taking the prize in 2013, when Real Madrid bowed out of the competition at the same stage.

Tuesday's game at the Bernabeu could be doubly significant for Kane's Ballon d'Or chances as he will go head-to-head with Real Madrid star Kylian Mbappe, who is also yet to win the award but is enjoying a stellar second season in Spain.

Mbappe has 38 goals and 43 goal involvements in all competitions this term, with both totals second only to Kane among players at clubs in the top five European leagues.

Like Kane, the 27-year-old has not won the Champions League before. But he is the top scorer in this year's competition with 13 goals, just four away from equalling the record in a single season.

France's captain also has 12 World Cup goals to his name, putting him within striking distance of Miroslav Klose's all-time record of 16. If he can fire Real Madrid or France to glory in the next few months, setting new milestones for good measure, his Ballon d'Or credentials could become irresistible.

Another French threat is Kane's Bayern team-mate Michael Olise, who has established himself as key player for Les Bleus in the past 12 months. The London-born winger has added end product to his game since leaving Crystal Palace in 2024 and has 24 assists this term, comfortably the most for a team in one of Europe's leading leagues.

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